1. The impact of geopolitics on trade

China US trade relations:

The United States maintains export restrictions on some high-tech products to China, but bilateral cooperation in climate technology and agricultural products has strengthened, and China has resumed importing American soybeans and corn.

The export of China's "new three types" (electric vehicles, lithium batteries, and photovoltaic products) continues to grow, and the final ruling of the EU's anti subsidy investigation on Chinese electric vehicles has been implemented, with the tax rate raised to 25%.

The Red Sea crisis continues: Houthi armed attacks have led to a 30% decrease in shipping volume on the Suez Canal, an increase in freight rates on the Asia Europe route, and a surge in demand for freight on the China Europe freight train.

2. Emerging markets and supply chain restructuring

Deepening the "China+1" strategy:

Foreign enterprises are accelerating their transfer to Southeast Asia (Vietnam, India, Thailand) and Mexico, with Mexico's exports to the United States surpassing China for the first time.

The rise of India's manufacturing industry will lead the world in mobile phone exports by 2025, but infrastructure bottlenecks will limit further growth.

Key mineral competition:

Global competition in lithium, rare earth and other supply chains is intensifying, with China leading rare earth processing and Europe and America promoting mineral cooperation in Africa and Latin America.

The ban on Indonesian nickel exports has sparked international controversy, and the European Union is considering imposing anti-dumping duties on Indonesian stainless steel.

New forms of foreign trade and digitalization

Cross border e-commerce outbreak:

The global B2C cross-border e-commerce scale has exceeded $3.5 trillion, with Temu, SHEIN, and TikTok Shop dominating the European and American markets.

Multiple countries strengthen cross-border e-commerce tax supervision, and the European Union cancels the VAT exemption for goods below 150 euros.

Pilot program for digital currency settlement:

China expands its pilot program for cross-border digital RMB payments and completes the first digital currency settlement for oil trade with Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.

The Bank for International Settlements (BIS) is promoting the construction of cross-border payment networks for CBDCs (central bank digital currencies).

Key Industry Trends

New energy vehicles:

China's global market share of electric vehicles has reached 45%, but it has faced accusations of "overcapacity" in Europe and America, and France and Spain have introduced local subsidy policies.

Toyota's solid-state battery mass production has led to a rebound in market share for Japanese car companies.

Semiconductor competition:

The United States further restricts the export of advanced chip manufacturing equipment to China, and China's mature process chip exports have increased by 50%.

South Korean companies Samsung and TSMC have delayed the construction and production of factories in the United States, accelerating the regionalization of the global chip supply chain.