Global Economic Outlook (As of May 14, 2025)

1. ‌Growth Trends‌

• ‌Slowing Global Momentum‌: Global GDP growth is projected at ‌2.7-2.8%‌ in 2025, with advanced economies decelerating (US: 2.3%, Eurozone: 1.2%) and emerging markets sustaining robust growth (China: 4.6%, India: 6.4%).
• ‌Diverging Regional Recovery‌: Sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America face constraints from commodity volatility, while Southeast Asia benefits from supply chain diversification.

2. ‌Inflation and Monetary Policy‌

• ‌Moderating Inflation‌: Global inflation is expected to ease to ‌3.9%‌ in 2025, though US inflation (2.8%) remains above the Fed’s target.
• ‌Policy Shifts‌: The Fed may cut rates by ‌25 basis points‌ starting March 2025, while the ECB continues gradual easing to support growth.

3. ‌Key Risks and Challenges‌

• ‌Trade Fragmentation‌: Escalating tariffs (e.g., US-China disputes) could reduce global trade growth by ‌0.6%‌, disrupting supply chains and investment flows.
• ‌Debt Vulnerabilities‌: Over 60% of low-income countries remain at high risk of debt distress, exacerbated by rising borrowing costs.
• ‌Climate and Tech Disruptions‌: Renewable energy investments surpass $1.5 trillion annually, but mineral shortages threaten green transitions.

4. ‌Sectoral Insights‌

• ‌Labor Markets‌: Advanced economies face slowing job creation, while youth unemployment exceeds 20% in parts of Africa and the Middle East.
• ‌Investment Priorities‌: High-growth sectors include AI (market size >$500 billion), healthcare, and energy storage.

5. ‌Outlook and Projections‌

Sources: IMF, World Bank, OECD, and UN mid-year assessments highlight a "fragile equilibrium" requiring coordinated policy action to mitigate trade and climate risks.